Top 60 MLB prospects: Jackson Holliday, Marcelo Mayer lead Keith Law's updated rankings (2024)

SS

Baltimore Orioles

Preseason Ranking: 1

Since Holliday’s return to Triple A, he’s hit .270/.440/.480 (through Sunday’s games) with as many walks as strikeouts, playing more second base than shortstop. I’m sure someone out there is trying to sell the idea that Holliday isn’t the prospect everyone said he’d be coming into the year, but don’t buy it. My guess is we don’t see him in the majors again until the Orioles are comfortable bringing him up to stay, even if he struggles.

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SS

Boston Red Sox

Preseason Ranking: 8

Mayer has been hitting all season, but he’s had even better results in June and so far in July, even with some continued trouble with sliders down and in or below the zone. He’s still a plus defender at short and making a ton of hard contact, coming into the plus power that scouts foresaw from him back when he was the top prospect in the 2021 draft. I doubt he sees the majors this year, and it’s not necessary for his development, but I also don’t think it’s out of the question.

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3B,IF

Tampa Bay Rays

Preseason Ranking: 5

Caminero just returned to Triple-A Durham from a rehab assignment last Saturday, so he could be back in the majors in September or sooner, depending on what the Rays do at the deadline. His stat line for 2024 isn’t great, but he’s only 20 in Triple A and his exit velocity has been up to 117 mph, with a 90th percentile EV of 106.7. The hard contact is still there, but he’s had some unusually bad luck on balls in play — he’s had 11 outs hit at 105 mph or harder already this year.

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SS

Arizona Diamondbacks

Preseason Ranking: 4

Lawlar would be the No. 2 prospect on the list, but he’s played just 13 games in 2024 and suffered his third significant injury of the season, reaggravating the hamstring injury he suffered while rehabbing from a torn thumb ligament. He’s probably going to miss 90 percent of the season. Availability is a skill, and Lawlar has also missed a ton of development time this year. He’s still Arizona’s top prospect and has MVP-level upside, but I think it’s fair, at this point, to question his durability.

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SS,2B

Seattle Mariners

Preseason Ranking: 37

Emerson continues to destroy Low-A pitching and shows a more advanced approach than I think anyone realized he had at the draft. He hit .341/.442/.500 in his first 11 games back (through Sunday) from the injured list, and continues to play solid defense at shortstop. He should be in High A soon, just based on the production, and I think he should go to the Arizona Fall League to make up for the at-bats he’s lost with two IL stints.

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C

San Diego Padres

Preseason Ranking: 3

Salas continues to struggle at the plate, although he is 18 in High A and one of only two players that young anywhere above Low A. He’s making enough contact, but not getting the results you’d like, mostly because he’s not hitting the ball hard enough. This is exactly the picture you’d expect of a player who’s playing against much older competition, but it also makes it very hard to determine if he’s making any real adjustments — and so far it doesn’t look like he’s doing anything different at the plate. There’s still huge upside here, but I think any talk of him reaching the majors before he turns 20 has to be tabled.

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OF

Washington Nationals

Preseason Ranking: 7

I am a little disappointed by Crews’ performance so far; I certainly expected better production in the minors from him, even if he might struggle in the majors once better pitchers attack him up and in with fastballs. Instead, his issue has been ball/strike recognition, as he’s got a chase rate of 37 percent in Triple A so far, along with a .257/.335/.426 line in 23 games at the level — and he didn’t dominate Double A, either. The silver lining is that he’s making good quality contact, and if he can stop going after pitches out of the zone he’d probably be in the majors in short order.

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OF

Detroit Tigers

Preseason Ranking: 14

Clark was the third overall pick last year, between Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford, and just earned a promotion to High A this past week after he hit .286/.386/.421 in the Low-A Florida State League, hitting for more power as the season progressed. I’ve heard he’s running a bit slower than he did in high school, although the defense remains plus and he swiped 26 bags in 28 attempts before the promotion. I understand Tigers fans being frustrated they passed on Langford, but Clark still looks like a future star.

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OF

Minnesota Twins

Preseason Ranking: 15

Jenkins got hurt in his first game of the season, hit the injured list, and has hit .277/.417/.406 since his return to Low A with 25 walks and just 15 strikeouts. He’s always had power and scouts loved his swing, but he was pitched around a ton in high school and there was some uncertainty about where his hit tool stood and how real the plate discipline was. I think we can say now it’s real, and the man can hit. He’ll probably follow Clark to High A soon.

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RHP

Detroit Tigers

Preseason Ranking: 29

Jobe started the year on a pretty tight pitch count, topping out at 68 pitches and four innings in his outings before he injured his hamstring. Since his return to Double A, he’s pitching just as well and now going deeper into games, with six no-hit innings in his last outing. He’s missing a ton of bats with a high-spin, mid-90s four-seamer, an easy plus changeup and at least a 55 slider, and now he’s throwing more strikes. I don’t think he’s far off from the big leagues — if he can stay healthy.

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C

Baltimore Orioles

Preseason Ranking: 20

Basallo is just 19 in Double A, splitting time between catching and playing first base, perhaps a signal that the Orioles think his best path to playing time with them is at the latter position — but his trade value depends on him catching, where he’s got a cannon of an arm but may end up a little too tall for the spot. He’s showing plus power and making contact at a high rate, recovering well after a dismal start to the season, with a .276 OBP in April and 22 strikeouts against just two walks.

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OF

New York Yankees

Preseason Ranking: 21

Domínguez completed his rehab assignment from 2023 Tommy John surgery but the Yankees optioned him to the minors in favor of letting Alex Verdugo continue making outs in left or something. The Martian is mashing so far in a small sample in Triple A, with a strikeout rate barely over 20 percent so far and plenty of power, enough to project him as an improvement on the .294 OBP and .362 SLG the Yankees have received from left field so far this year.

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OF,3B

Colorado Rockies

Preseason Ranking: NA

The top player on my draft board this year ended up the third overall pick, so in my eyes the Rockies should be over the moon, having landed the best player and prospect in college baseball this year. Condon’s 37 home runs were the most since the NCAA switched to BBCOR bats, although everyone was hitting homers at crazy rates this spring, and he played five different positions for Georgia, including center field and third base. In Denver, he’ll be a 40-homer threat.

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OF

Los Angeles Dodgers

Preseason Ranking: 25

The Dodgers’ top prospect hit .279/.388/.447 in 55 games in Low A at age 19 before a promotion earlier this month to High A, where he continues to get on base at a high clip (.455) in a tiny sample. He hasn’t hit for a ton of power outside of a brief streak in May; from June 1 through last Sunday he’s got just three extra-base hits. He’s a bat-first prospect who does project to 20-25 homers with strong OBP skills, with the hope that he can stick in right.

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2B

Cleveland Guardians

Preseason Ranking: NA

The Aussie second baseman has already signed with the Guardians and should move very quickly through their system, as he’s an incredibly advanced hitter with great feel for the strike zone and at least solid-average power. We’ll see just how advanced the approach is when he faces some better pitching this summer than what he faced in the Pac-12 (RIP), but I don’t know anyone who was concerned about whether Bazzana would hit.

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LHP

Chicago White Sox

Preseason Ranking: 79

Schultz’s 2023 season ended early due to a shoulder impingement, but he came out on fire this year, moving up to Double A and continuing to mow down hitters, striking guys out at a solid clip while continuing to show extremely low walk rates for a guy who throws hard with a delivery that isn’t bad but isn’t the prettiest, either. He was the most impressive pitcher at the Futures Game this year and could pitch in the majors in 2024 if the White Sox wanted him to, although doing so would mean adding him to the 40-man roster a year early.

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Chicago Cubs

Preseason Ranking: 26

The Cubs’ first-round pick from last year started slow with some terrible BABIP luck, but he’s been rolling lately across the board, hitting for average and power while bouncing between short, third, and second to maintain his flexibility. He was a little closed off when I saw him at the Futures Game, which isn’t his normal setup, but regardless it isn’t inhibiting him at the plate at all. With Christopher Morel below replacement level this year, there should be an opportunity for Shaw to come up and take some at-bats and reps at third base.

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3B,1B

Baltimore Orioles

Preseason Ranking: 27

Mayo missed about a month while recovering from a rib fracture, and all he’s done since his return is hit .309/.404/.567 (through Sunday’s games), splitting time between third and first. It’s big power with a patient approach and no straightforward path to playing time right now. The O’s could move Jordan Westburg to second to open up third, although that blocks Jackson Holliday’s best position; they could call up Mayo to at least platoon with Ryan O’Hearn at DH; they could give Mayo some reps in an outfield corner and just move him around to get him into the lineup. The bat looks ready and he’ll probably be a very popular name in trade rumors in the next week.

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C

Boston Red Sox

Preseason Ranking: 54

Teel looks like he’s very close to major-league-ready, as he’s hitting .305/.391/.470 in Double A in his first full year in pro ball with solid-average defense, and I don’t think there’s much projection here to make you want to hold off on promoting him to the big leagues. He’s even hit lefties well in a small sample, (partly) addressing one of the bigger concerns about him as a draft prospect. I don’t think there’s big power or any other plus tools coming, but I see a strong regular at a position of need for Boston right now.

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Philadelphia Phillies

Preseason Ranking: 89

Miller’s 2023 season was limited by a broken hamate bone in the spring, and he didn’t seem to have his power back yet when he went out for his pro debut, but he’s looked like a different guy on both sides of the ball this year, hitting so well in Low-A Clearwater that the Phillies bumped him up to High A after 35 games. He’s also playing well enough at shortstop that the pre-draft expectation that he’d move to third no longer seems accurate, or at least is far less certain. The Phils now have depth at shortstop down to the complex, giving them real leverage in the trade market if they choose to make Miller or Starlyn Caba available.

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OF

Boston Red Sox

Preseason Ranking: 22

Anthony still has one of the best swings in the minors and makes hard, line-drive contact, but Double-A pitchers are attacking him with all kinds of offspeed stuff and he hasn’t quite made the adjustment yet. In his last 20 games, through Sunday, he’s hitting .185/.264/.395 with a 25.2 percent strikeout rate — a small sample, but I present it just as a quick snapshot, and in that period he’s seeing more non-fastballs because the scouting report on him is pretty clear. He just turned 20 in May and has plenty of time to make this adjustment too.

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2B,SS

St. Louis Cardinals

Preseason Ranking: NA

The seventh overall pick in the draft and the No. 3 player on my board, Wetherholt had the best swing in the class but was hobbled much of the spring by a hamstring injury, his second significant one in the last 12 months. He can really, really hit, though, and there’s some surprising power in there for a smaller guy, so if he can stay healthy he’ll have a chance to move very quickly through the minors. He’s probably best off at second base, and the Cards have their shortstop of the present and future already.

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3B

Texas Rangers

Preseason Ranking: 40

Walcott turned 18 in March and is now up to .243/.338/.409 in High A after a brutal start that saw his average under .200 at the end of May. Since June 1, he’s hit .296/.353/.511 in 150 PA, even though he’s younger than several high schoolers just drafted in the first round last week (Bryce Rainer, P.J. Morlando). Walcott will still have to work on his strike zone judgment, but the fact that he’s doing this at such a young age is a tremendous sign for his future prospects, even if he ends up in right field.

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C

Milwaukee Brewers

Preseason Ranking: 12

Quero’s out for the year with shoulder surgery, so he’s losing some of the value of additional at bats and reps behind the plate, but he’s mostly moving down this list as other players enter and/or progress past him. We’ll also have to see if the injury, which was to his throwing shoulder, affects his ability to catch. I thought he could be a star thanks to the bat, so if he remains behind the plate I’m holding to that projection.

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SS

Tampa Bay Rays

Preseason Ranking: 38

Williams got off to a huge start in April and it seemed like he might finally be working to cut down on his very aggressive approach, which was the one real flaw in his game coming into this season, but poor swing decisions continue to plague him and his offensive output has declined every month this year. He whiffs too often in zone, and while he doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone at an excessive rate, when he does swing at them he misses 83 percent of the time, which reminds me of a great Fozzie Bear routine: “I told the doctor, ‘It hurts when I do this.’ He said, ‘Don’t do that!’” He’s still a plus defender at short, a plus-plus runner, and has 55 power, but he’s stuck in the mud right now until he makes some real adjustments at the plate.

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OF

Minnesota Twins

Preseason Ranking: 47

When Rodriguez is on the field, he rakes, up to .298/.479/.621 in 37 games so far as a 21-year-old in Double-A Wichita, even though he came into the year with only 183 games of professional experience over three seasons. That’s because he’s been hurt pretty often, missing time this year with a sprained thumb and the previous two years with a major knee injury and an abdominal strain. He still doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone and makes a ton of hard contact. If he plays, he’s a star, but he has yet to have a full season of at-bats.

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OF

Chicago Cubs

Preseason Ranking: 28

Alcántara has held steady this year as a 21-year-old (by his seasonal age) in Double A, keeping his strikeout rate low for a 6-6 hitter and making hard contact without a ton of game power yet, with plenty of projection remaining on his frame. He just turned 22 last week, so he’s right on track with college juniors drafted last year, a large number of whom are in Double A as well, but offers a wider range of potential outcomes with first-round upside if he keeps the contact rate steady as he fills out.

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OF

Arizona Diamondbacks

Preseason Ranking: 41

Jones is quietly having one of the biggest comeback seasons in the minors; last year was a lost campaign with multiple injuries and very disappointing production when he did play, but after starting the year 4 for 31 with 21 strikeouts, he hasn’t stopped hitting. Since that stretch ended with a five-strikeout game, he’s hit .293/.418/.445 and has brought his strikeout rate down to 25 percent, which is pretty close to the hitter we thought he’d be out of high school but with less game power so far.

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RHP

Philadelphia Phillies

Preseason Ranking: 34

Painter is out for the season after July 2023 Tommy John surgery, but it sounds like he’ll at least get on the mound for some sim games before the minor-league season ends, probably making some appearances in instructs before shutting it down for the winter. (I was hoping he might get a few innings in the AFL, for entirely selfish reasons, but that seems too optimistic.) If the curveball comes back to where it was pre-surgery, he still has No. 1 starter upside.

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SS

Seattle Mariners

Preseason Ranking: NR

Celesten’s pro debut continues to go well, as the 18-year-old has hit .342/.423/.561 in the Arizona Complex League with four games to go in that season; I imagine he’ll move up to Low A after they’re done, with Colt Emerson moving to High A. Celesten’s a switch-hitter and a true shortstop who moves well and looks like he’ll come into at least 15+ homer power, and probably would have benefited from the now-defunct short-season level given how well-developed he already is as a hitter.

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C

Los Angeles Dodgers

Preseason Ranking: 86

Rushing seems completely recovered from the concussion that interrupted his 2023 season and may have held down his production in the second half. He’s hitting .259/.370/.445 in Double A and whacking good fastballs again, addressing one of the concerns I had about him last year. He looks like a solid regular at worst, maybe a lower-average, 20-homer catcher with strong OBPs. He’s near the top of the list of prospects I think will be traded by the deadline.

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RHP

Pittsburgh Pirates

Preseason Ranking: 48

One of my favorite pitchers to watch in the minors right now, Chandler is extremely athletic with a great delivery and a fastball that has tremendous movement, perhaps too much for him to command just yet, along with a plus changeup and two breaking balls with tight spin. He’s cut his walk rate from 10.5 percent last year to 9.1 percent this year even with the move up to Double A. He’ll have to keep improving his control, and his fastball command, but he could give the Pirates a dominant third starter behind Skenes and Jones as soon as next year.

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RHP

St. Louis Cardinals

Preseason Ranking: 73

Hence has stretched out to go 90+ pitches multiple times this year, still working with a grade-70 changeup and plus fastball, but he’s on the shelf again, leaving one start early due to “cramping” and then his next start, 18 days later, due to discomfort in his side or his chest. He missed most of 2021 with a shoulder issue but has been healthy since, working on limited pitch counts until this year. He’s a potential No. 2 starter if he can hold up, but some scouts have always questioned whether his smaller build would give him the durability to do so.

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1B

Milwaukee Brewers

Preseason Ranking: 44

Black has mostly played first base this year, as his arm isn’t going to let him play the left side of the infield and the Brewers have more of a need at first than at second or in center, two other positions he might be able to handle. He’s continued to get on base and show plus speed in Triple A, with above-average power there that didn’t show up in his very brief major-league stint. Neither did his speed, for that matter, so I’m inclined to just write it off as a tiny sample and hope he gets a longer trial soon. He turns 24 on Friday and I don’t think he has much left to learn in Triple A at this point.

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OF

Philadelphia Phillies

Preseason Ranking: 43

Crawford’s still an elite runner and center fielder with great bat speed and strong contact quality but a tendency to hit the ball on the ground too often, a function of his swing and the way he’s coming down at the ball too much. He’s stronger than he was in high school but still looks like he’s got 15-20 pounds to go, and I imagine the Phillies will try to work on his swing once he’s a little more physically mature. If they do, it’s a 20-homer/50-steal upside with plus defense in center.

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RHP

Chicago Cubs

Preseason Ranking: 49

Horton has been out since late May with a strain to the subscapularis muscle in his right shoulder; it’s the largest muscle in the rotator cuff, so I doubt the Cubs will rush him back. Before then, he’d continued to show a plus slider and plus changeup but had run into a little trouble with hard contact on the fastball in his brief time in Triple A. He’s a starter of some sort, with his ceiling a function of what he does with the fastball going forward, whether it’s trying a different grip (perhaps a two-seamer?) or just deprecating it further to use the offspeed stuff more.

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SS

New York Mets

Preseason Ranking: 30

Williams has been out since April with a wrist injury that required surgery in June. He may return towards the very end of the minor-league season, although I’d expect him to need a full offseason to get all of his hand and wrist strength back. He’s a plus-plus runner who could stick at shortstop and has excellent plate discipline, hitting for surprising power for his 5-7 frame. I think we’ll just have to wait until the AFL or next year to see him at anything like 100 percent.

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OF

Boston Red Sox

Preseason Ranking: NA

Montgomery was the No. 4 player on my board going into the draft, but ended up going 12th overall to the Red Sox, in part because his spring ended in the super regionals when he broke his ankle. He was a two-way player at Stanford who gave up pitching this spring after he transferred to Texas A&M. He showed plus power from both sides of the plate, with a better swing left-handed and solid defense in right. I think there’s growth potential here, more than is typical for a 21-year-old SEC product.

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SS

San Diego Padres

Preseason Ranking: NA

De Vries just signed with the Padres in January and won’t turn 18 until October, but after a slow start in Low A — a very aggressive assignment for a teenager making his pro debut — he’s already showing some adjustments, hitting .288/.412/.600 in the last month (through Tuesday’s games) with 7 homers. He’s the youngest regular in any full-season league, and most players his age with his lack of experience are still in the DSL. With a real chance to stick at short and this kind of offensive upside, he might be a top-10 prospect in a year.

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RHP

Miami Marlins

Preseason Ranking: 92

Meyer has shown a strong four-pitch mix, highlighted by a plus changeup and a high-spin four-seamer in the low- to mid-90s, a little below his velocity in high school. He’s already shown that he can miss plenty of bats in Low A and High A. He is struggling with both control and command, walking 15 percent of batters he’s faced this year, and he’s only averaging just over four innings a start.

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RHP

Cincinnati Reds

Preseason Ranking: NA

The No. 2 pick in the draft and the best available pitcher in the class, Burns dominated in the ACC after transferring from Tennessee to Wake Forest last offseason. He’s up to 100 mph with a wipeout slider and enough feel for a changeup to make you believe he’ll be at least a three-pitch guy. So far, at least, he’s shown he can repeat the delivery for strikes. Assuming he stays healthy, he should be in the majors by the end of next year.

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LHP

Chicago White Sox

Preseason Ranking: NA

Smith was right behind Burns among pitchers in the class, working 92-97 with a plus slider, a funky delivery and a low three-quarters slot that makes for a very uncomfortable at-bat for left-handed hitters. He does have some trouble locating to his glove side, and he’s already had Tommy John surgery (in high school), the two main factors why I had him ranked just slightly below Chase Burns. But I also think he should move very quickly, and could be a No. 2 starter.

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C

Chicago White Sox

Preseason Ranking: 67

Quero came over to the White Sox in the Lucas Giolito trade last July and continues to get on base at a high clip (.363 this year), with high contact rates (17.2 percent strikeout rate) and, this year, a little more pop than he’s shown before, as he’s up to 13 homers. He’s a solid defender who should continue to improve back there and has already made a ton of progress on his defense. He’s just 21, but he’ll probably see the majors either at the end of this season or early in 2025.

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OF

Cleveland Guardians

Preseason Ranking: JM

Jackson’s little brother is just 19 but is having a hell of a year in Low A, hitting .274/.395/.410 with more walks than strikeouts and 26 steals in 32 attempts. He’s already tripled his career home run total, with 2 homers in his first 406 career PA and now 4 more this season, and overall he’s hitting the ball harder and coming into the power that Jackson showed as early as age 18. I don’t know if Jaison has quite his brother’s overall upside, but he does project as a plus defender in center with high OBPs and more than enough sock to hit major-league pitching.

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SS

Seattle Mariners

Preseason Ranking: JM

Arroyo has already slid over to second base thanks to the army of shortstops around him in the Mariners’ system, but he continues to hit, with a .273/.401/.488 line between Low and High A this year as a 19-year-old. His approach remains strong, and he’s coming into some power as well. He has a thicker build for the infield, and there’s a chance he could end up in left, but so far he’s adapted well to second base and it looks like he might stick there.

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OF

Boston Red Sox

Preseason Ranking: NR

Maybe the biggest breakout prospect in the minors this year, Campbell was a fourth-round pick last year out of Georgia Tech, where he played 45 games in one season as a redshirt freshman. He’s an excellent athlete who destroyed High A to start 2024, moved up to Double A in June, and has hit .388/.488/.590 at the higher level with just a 17 percent strikeout rate. There’s some BABIP hilarity happening here — he’s at .466 since the promotion, which, I hate to break it to Red Sox fans, is not sustainable — but he has outstanding hand-eye coordination to keep hitting for a high average, and he’s hitting the ball harder and for more power this year. This was a fantastic pick by Boston’s scouting department, with area scout Kirk Fredriksson leading the way.

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RHP

Colorado Rockies

Preseason Ranking: 75

Dollander was the Rockies’ first-round pick in 2023 and has dominated in high A this year, with a 2.83 ERA and a 37 percent strikeout rate for Spokane. He just made his Double-A debut on Wednesday night, a little late for a pitcher with two years of SEC experience, but the fact that his slider is a real weapon for him again is a great sign and gives him a chance to be a No. 2 starter for the Rockies in the pretty near future.

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SS/2B

Detroit Tigers

Preseason Ranking: NR

McGonigle was supposed to be one of the best pure bats in the loaded high school class of 2023, and it turns out that was spot-on. He hit .326/.407/.470 with just an 8.8 percent strikeout rate in the first half in Low A and earned a promotion to High A at the break. It’s more hit than power, and he’s probably going to end up at second base rather than at short, but he looks like he’ll be at least a solid regular.

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RHP

New York Mets

Preseason Ranking: NR

Sproat has been up to 100 mph with a plus slider and 45 changeup this year, improving as the season went along, and the Mets’ second-rounder from last year — who was also their third-rounder in 2023, and Texas’ seventh-rounder in 2019 — looks like he’s still got more growth ahead of him. It’s premium stuff, and he’s throwing more and better strikes now, with the same aggressive mentality that he’s shown at least since college; it’s that Max Scherzer “I’m going to come at you with my best stuff and you are not worthy to hit it” style of pitching. Even though he’s about to turn 24, the Mets shouldn’t rush him, as the command isn’t quite there yet, but he looks like a No. 2 starter in the making.

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C

Seattle Mariners

Preseason Ranking: 61

Ford has had something of a disappointing year in Double A, as his walk rate is down, his power is down, and his strikeout rate is slightly up, while he’s thrown runners out at the worst rate of his career. He’s still just 21 and very athletic, enough to go play somewhere else and have value, which may be the best path for his own development and for the Mariners.

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SS

Seattle Mariners

Preseason Ranking: 46

Young’s stock has taken a modest hit as he looks more like a solid regular with high probability, lacking much ceiling because there isn’t going to be a ton of impact with the bat. He does show excellent feel for the strike zone and for making contact even though he’s just 20 in Double A, hitting .262/.357/.391 with just a 15.5 percent strikeout rate, spending most of his time at shortstop but getting some reps at second as well. He seems like an obvious trade candidate for the Mariners with Colt Emerson and Felnin Celesten screaming up the system behind him.

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Modesto Nuts

3B

Tampa Bay Rays

Preseason Ranking: 56

Taylor was the Rays’ first-rounder last year out of TCU and is now hitting .268/.388/.510 in High A, more than enough to merit a promotion to Double A given his age (22) and experience level. He’s even played shortstop this year, because the Rays think anyone can play shortstop, but I’d still bet on him ending up at third base in the long run.

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3B

Cincinnati Reds

Preseason Ranking: 50

Collier’s been very streaky this season — I don’t think that’s a skill, to be clear, but that’s just how his year has gone — with the one consistent factor the power, as he’s up to 13 homers already as a 19-year-old in High A. He still expands the zone too much, in part because he thinks he can hit a lot of those “bad balls,” and he really has to drop some weight or he’s going to end up a DH.

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Daytona Tortugas

C/1B

Chicago Cubs

Preseason Ranking: NR

Everyone agrees Ballesteros can hit, and he’s already getting stronger, topping out at a 109 mph exit velocity in his brief time so far in Triple A even though he’s just 20 years old. The question is his position; he’s nominally a catcher but below-average back there, with a body that does not look like it’s going to fare well under the workload of a catcher. He’s listed on MiLB.com at 5-7, 195 pounds, but Baseball Reference's 215 lbs looks more accurate, and while we can point to Alejandro Kirk as a successful catcher with this build, that’s survivor bias (and maybe wishful thinking). Ballesteros does look like he’ll hit enough to play another position, but he also has the opportunity to work on his conditioning and focus more on improving his blocking and receiving skills. If he does stick behind the plate, he’s a future All-Star.

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SS

Toronto Blue Jays

Preseason Ranking: 59

Nimmala was promoted too quickly to Low A, struggled, went back to the complex league, then returned to Low A to post much better results. Over the last three weeks he hit .281/.343/.684 in a 16-game sample, albeit with a 32.8 percent strikeout rate. He’s another player who belongs in the intermediate short-season level of the minors, but given his age and his struggles in April, the last month is a very positive sign. I still see an above-average regular at short with plus power, and he won’t turn 19 until November.

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1B

Oakland A's

Preseason Ranking: NA

The A’s took Kurtz with the fourth overall pick out of Wake Forest, where he posted the highest walk rate in Division I this year along with plus power that had him topping out at 115 mph. He’s limited to first base, but the power/patience combination would be more than enough to make him an above-average regular or more there. He can get passive at the plate — his swing rate was among the lowest in DI as well — and he did miss some time this spring with a shoulder injury.

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2B/3B

Cleveland Guardians

Preseason Ranking: NR

Brito came to Cleveland in the trade that sent Nolan Jones to Colorado, a deal that maybe didn’t look so hot for the Guardians last year but that is going to work out just fine, even though Brito’s future as a regular will probably come with another organization. He’s a very disciplined hitter who’s a plus defender at second, and he’s shown enough power to be an above-average regular there or at third base, with 13 homers already this year. He’s actually flipped his platoon split from 2023 — last year he was much better hitting left-handed, while it’s the reverse this year, which is yet another point in favor of looking at at least two years of data when looking at left/right splits. But he’s blocked eight ways from Sunday in Cleveland, and now he’s got Travis Bazzana behind him, so if the Guardians make any sort of deadline deal, Brito seems very likely to be in it.

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3B

Washington Nationals

Preseason Ranking: 53

House continues to make very hard contact, but did struggle to get on base in Double A (.311) before a sudden promotion to Triple A right before the All-Star break. He has 30-homer power and doesn’t whiff as much as you’d think given how hard he swings, but he’s chasing too many pitches out of the zone right now. When he swings at strikes, he’s successful, but he goes after a ton of pitches just off the plate and doesn’t get nearly the same power when he does.

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1B

Cleveland Guardians

Preseason Ranking: 66

Manzardo struggled in his brief major-league debut, putting him in good company, but it was more of the “hitting MLB pitching is hard” sort of struggle, rather than “this guy isn’t good enough.” He has a strikeout rate of 16.8 percent in Triple A, but it was 26.4 percent in his 82 PA in the majors. I don’t think he’s suddenly forgotten how to make contact — major-league pitching is just that much better than anything in the minors, and we’re seeing a lot of hitters need more time to adjust than we’re used to. I still see 20+ homers with strong OBPs here, though with passable-at-best defense at first.

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RHP

Minnesota Twins

Preseason Ranking: NR

Matthews was an eighth-round pick in 2022 out of Western Carolina, but since then he’s added more than a grade of velocity while actually improving his control. He sits 94-95 now, topping out at 97. Matthews has a slider, cutter, curveball and occasional changeup, nothing clearly plus but everything playing up because he throws so many strikes — he didn’t walk a batter until his seventh start of the season, going over 125 batters without a walk — and because he’s got an extremely short arm action that adds some deception. I don’t love the delivery, but I wouldn’t change it until it causes a problem.

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