Election latest: More polls forecast huge Tory losses - with one projecting just 53 seats (2024)

By Tamara Cohen, political correspondent

John Swinney has now been on the campaign trail for most of his short time as Scotland's first minister, which began just six weeks ago.

After a turbulent 15 months for the SNP following theresignation of Nicola Sturgeonand thenHumza Yousaf, the party of independence is fighting for its life against a resurgent Labour poised to win back some old heartlands.

For the nationalists, this is existential. Having won 48 seats in the 2019 election, they could -according to today's YouGov poll- end up with just 20 seats.

With many seats too close to call, especially in the tightly-contested central belt, other polls have put the SNP far lower, and that leaves its central goal of independence at serious risk.

Read more below:

As well as our mammoth YouGov poll projecting 425 seats for Labour and 108 for the Conservatives, two other polls have been released today showing Labour maintaining its comfortable lead.

A poll by More In Common projected a Labour majority of 162, just shy of its 1997 and 2001 landslides, with the Conservatives falling just 155 seats, their worst total since 1906.

High profile losses forecast in the projection include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

But the results were the most favourable for the Conservatives of the recent large-scale polls.

Meanwhile a poll by Savantaprojects a drastic result for the Conservatives, with Labour winning 516 seats and the Tories falling to 53 MPs.

It puts Labour 19 percentage points ahead of the Tories, with Labour on 40%, the Tories 21%, Reform 14%, Lib Dems 11%, Green 4%, SNP 3% and other parties 5%.

The More In Common survey forecasts Reform UK winning no seats, with the Tories holding Clacton against Nigel Farage, but the poll is based on data collected between 22 May and 17 June and so includes the period before Mr Farage announced his decision to stand in the seat.

Sinn Fein were one of the parties to launch their manifesto today - but they don't actually sit in parliament.

Why is that? And what role do they have in the general election?

Our senior Ireland correspondent David Blevins explains:

Our deputy political editorSam Coatespraises Sir Ed Davey for his unique way of getting the Liberal Democrats' policies across.

He says he is able to "knit together a policy programme... that people understand why he cares about it, because he links it back to both his son and his mother who he cared for when he was a teenager".

Sam adds: "I think that relatability, along with the stunts everyone has seen, has been the core of his campaign, and it has caught the imagination by being something different."

He says he wondered what role the Lib Dems would play if there was a huge Labour supermajority, "because they don't feel like they are going to go on the attack, they don't feel like they're going to be particularly pugnacious".

"They're an anti-Tory outfit under this guy, Ed Davey. So what really is their role going to be from 5 July onwards?"

That concludes our coverage of tonight'sPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridge- it'll return tomorrow from 7pm. In the meantime, stick with us here for the latest general election news and analysis.

Ending on a lighter note, Sophy asks Sir Ed which politician he would most like to push off a paddleboard.

"There's just too many they won't fit on," Sir Ed says.

The Liberal Democrat leader has pulled several attention-grabbing stunts during the campaign, including repeatedly tumbling off a paddle board into Lake Windermere… as well as screaming on a rollercoaster, splashing down a waterslide, careening downhill on a bike, tackling an assault course, building sandcastles and competing in wheelbarrow races.

Who deserves a knighthood more?

Sophy asks Sir Ed who deserves a knighthood more, himself or Post Office campaigner Alan Bates, who was knighted in the King's Birthday Honours list last week.

Sir Ed has come under scrutiny for his previous work as the postal affairs minister in light of the scandal.

"I think Alan Bates does," Sir Ed says.

"I'm very proud of my knighthood though, which I was very fortunate to get from her late Majesty because of the work I've done on climate change."

In his interview withSophy Ridge, Sir Ed Davey has also opened up about why he has decided to speak so candidly about his experience caring for his late mother, who died when he was 15, and now his teenage son John, who is disabled.

It has formed a central message of the Lib Dem leader's election campaign - in addition to the wacky election stunts he has performed to get through to voters.

Sir Ed says he and his wife Emily felt "we've got a duty to talk about this, because it's not about us".

"It's about millions of families out there who are caring for their loved ones. Our life experience will chime with lots of other people and because I think care is a critical issue that should be in this election," he says.

He describes a typical day looking after his son, which starts with a cuddle and a chat and then they "normally do lion impressions because he likes going 'roar'".

He says he gets his son out of bed, showers him, cleans his teeth and then "we massage him every day, because his limbs can be quite stiff if we don't".

Sir Ed goes on to say he has been "lucky enough to get help from some wonderful carers" and adds: "I don't think we could survive, certainly without my wife helping, or these carers."

But he adds: "I have to say I enjoy doing it, because it gives me a great bond with my son. We have a wonderful relationship, he's so fantastic."

Legal migration is "too high", Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey tells Sophy Ridge in tonight's Politics Hub interview.

Sir Ed says rising immigration is "a massive broken promise" by the Conservatives and "one of the reasons why we're seeing such disillusionment in politics".

Asked whether he thinks legal migration is too high, Sir Ed says: "Yes, I do. And you're right to say that since we left the EU, immigration has more than doubled, completely against what the Conservatives and the Brexiteers promised."

Pressed on what he would do to fix the issue, he says his policy to raise the minimum wage of care workers would attract "people who are currently working in an Amazon warehouse or supermarket" to the sector in order to reduce the reliance on foreign staff.

"They [the Conservatives] refuse to pay people properly, and so they've issued hundreds of thousands of health care visas, so they've increased legal immigration," he adds.

"I've shown you a way where we wouldn't need to do that."

'No secret' Lib Dems are pro-European party

Sir Ed also says it is "no secret" the Liberal Democrats are a pro-European party.

He says the party has made it clear in its manifesto that its "ultimate aim" is rejoining the European single market.

The UK's relationship with Europe has been "so damaged by the Conservatives," he adds.

"I speak to European politicians, and they think the relationship between Britain and Europe has been damaged. And so to build that up, I'm just being frank with you and transparent, it will take time."

On Sunday we published an online report from the North East Fife constituency.

Unfortunately within that report we mistakenly referenced part of a neighbouring constituency. The article has now been removed and we apologise for this error.

The list of candidates standing in North East Fife are:

• Conservatives - Bill Bowman;
• Liberal Democrats - Wendy Chamberlain;
• Labour Party - Jennifer Gallagher;
• SNP - Stefan Hoggan-Radu;
• Scottish Green Party - Morven Ovenstone-Jones;
• Reform UK - Matthew Wren.

Our first guest Drew Hendry, the SNP's economy spokesperson, tells Sophy Ridgethe party is "fighting for every vote".

Responding to the YouGov projection earlier which suggested the party would lose half of its seats, Mr Hendry says: "We're fighting for every vote, we've put forward a positive, hopeful alternative to a broken Westminster system."

John Swinney's SNP are projected to drop to 20 seats under this projection, down from the 48 won by Nicola Sturgeon in the last general election.

Pushed on whether waning support for the SNP reflects waning support for Scottish independence, he says we should wait to see what happens on polling day, adding: "There are many different polls showing different things. We are very positive about this election."

The SNP has released its election manifesto - and we've scoured their policy pledges so you don't have to.

Before we hear from the party's economy spokesperson Drew Hendry, you can scroll to the right in the interactive tool below to find out what the party has promised to do if they win the election.

We will produce a breakdown of all the other parties' manifestos here when they are announced - you can find the ones we've done so far in the key points above.